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Psychology And Bad Market Timing.

February 21, 2011 2 Comments

Every stock investor whether a technical or fundamental or value investor ultimately needs to take a call on whether he/she wishes to buy or sell at the price Mr. Market sets at any given time.How much an investment ultimately nets a person depends on the timing of the buy and sell decision and the actual price at which the transaction takes place,despite all the theories of averaging out and time in the market and reversion to the mean.

The following is a checklist of mental mistakes that may affect a person’s decision to buy or sell and cost a him/her dearly. The checklist is from Whitney Tilson’s presentation ‘How to Avoid – and Profit From – Manias,Bubbles and Investor Irrationality”

•Failing to Buy

–Status quo bias

–Regret aversion

–Choice paralysis

–Information overload

–Hope that stock will go down further (extrapolating recent past into the future; greed) or return to previous cheaper price (anchoring)

–Regret at not buying earlier (if stock has risen)

•Office Depot at $8 (vs. $6) Read more of this post

Filed under Paper Assets, Theory, Tool Kit Tagged with anchoring, behavioural finance, Choice Paralysis, endowment effect, Failing to Buy, Failing to Sell, fundamental investor, greed, How To Avoid and Profit From Manias Bubbles and Investor Irrationality, Information Overload, Paper Asset, psychology, Regret Aversion, share, Status quo bias, stock, stock investor, technical investor, value investor, Whitney Tilson

Running The Interest Rate Race

January 19, 2011 2 Comments

In inflationary times fixed income instruments may not be such a great idea , especially if the interest rates are just not that high.But there is no way we can avoid these instruments.

1.We need them to add steadiness to our portfolios especially when the stock markets show volatility.

2.We need them to park the money we plan on using within a definite time horizon.

3.We need them again when we have to route a steady stream of payments into another investment and want to simultaneously avoid both the risk of a capital loss due to a short term investment in a mutual fund and the low returns of a liquid fund.

In such a situation we just need to find the highest possible interests which our funds can earn in a given time over and above the rate of inflation while simultaneously reducing the risk of capital loss. Read more of this post