The Yen Carry Trade

A carry trade is a strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates, which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage used.

Here’s an example of a “yen carry trade”: a trader borrows 1 million Japanese yen from a Japanese bank, converts the funds into U.S. dollars and buys a bond for the equivalent amount. Let’s assume that the bond pays 4.5% and the Japanese interest rate is set at 0%. The trader stands to make a profit of 4.5% as long as the exchange rate between the countries does not change. Many professional traders use this trade because the gains can become very large when leverage is taken into consideration. If the trader in our example uses a common leverage factor of 10:1, then he can stand to make a profit of 45%.Big outfits carry leverages of 100-300%

The big risk in a carry trade is the uncertainty of exchange rates. Using the example above, if the U.S. dollar were to fall in value relative to the Japanese yen, then the trader would run the risk of losing money. Also, these transactions are generally done with a lot of leverage, so a small movement in exchange rates can result in huge losses unless the position is hedged appropriately.

With the negative interest rate offered by the BoJ to Japanese banks, there’s a good chance that a lot of international speculative hot money flows will flow into Indian securities. Side from watching the Indian securities markets we’d do well to take precautions against a sudden reversal of trends in exchange rates, interest rates and inflation.