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The 8 Year Stock Market Cycle


wealthymatterswealthymattersNow that you have the facts at hand, wait patiently no matter how hard it seems. Master stillness and you are well onto your way of becoming wealthy .Combine stillness with swiftness and decisiveness when right and you can’t but be wealthy.

BTW: Bhavikk’s office mates have a term for when a person can’t sit still when its best they should-behaving like Baba Ramdev!

 

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About Keerthika Singaravel
Engineer,Investor,Businessperson

8 Responses to The 8 Year Stock Market Cycle

  1. BellyBytes says:

    Indeed a great tip. Is this your calculation and observation btw?

    • In 2000,I’d just graduated and was on the lookout to make money, and I had a savings of some 81 thousand burning a hole in my pocket. But I knew next to nothing of value about investing. I’d just started to read the market news. Prudence prevailed and I invested only 5000 of my 81,000.I have the stake till today and its multiplied about 9 times in the interval. In 2008 I was equipped with the ability to calculate the DCF and was well warned, having watched the sub-prime crisis up-front in the US. Stocks I’d picked up at 25 rupees then are now trading round 285 rupees. So I’s say I’m getting better! This time I’m waiting with a stock list and cash and the determination to wait more patiently than last time to try and better my record. China is in the midst of a hard landing, now its only a question of how long before the ill effects are transmitted to other economies. In December I seemed to be the only person talking overvaluation and market fall and questioning the likes of Nilesh Shah and their presentation. On the same day Sandip Sabharwal went onto post about how the Indian economy and the markets were going to out perform. Now a couple of days past he went on to post about how he had failed to completely forsee the Market fall of December. At the time he declined the invitation to an open debate, he pleaded the necessity to show round some foreign investors! His current view is that the performance of Indian companies will soon catch up to justify their valuations and that a market crash and wider economic problems will bypass India. The view our FM is also hard selling in Davos, he’s hoping for a good monsoon and foreign cash flowing into start-ups to bail India out. I’m seeing a few unknown “foreign” investors echo the govt. view in the papers. But this assessment is at wide variance from what the likes of Soros are saying. And anyways I was watching an old interview of Soros where he talks of how he got burned in India in 2008.So I believe he is speaking from experience. And then as now India won’t, indeed can’t decouple from the rest of the world. And anyways a great deal of the buoyancy of Indian markets is due to foreign money, and with the Dollex being unimpressive foreign investors are already pulling out big time and will do so faster to cover losses in other markets. Our guys will play the markets for a while and then we are headed down. How fast remains to be seen. Start-ups simply won’t churn out results fast enough and even a good crop won’t help if the prices received are not good. And exports during an international slowdown are hard.

      • BellyBytes says:

        thanks for this insight. the next time theres a rise in the stocks i have, i will sell and pull out.

      • Why do you wish to pull out? Don’t you think they will bounce back?

      • BellyBytes says:

        Can I wait for another 8 years?

      • You won’t have to. In another 8 years or so you will have another crash, for whatever other reason. In the meanwhile you’d have multiplied your cash, as long as its in the stocks of the right sort of company.

      • BellyBytes says:

        Aaah . That’s the moot point. The right company.

      • Do or have someone sensible run a DCF analysis, check leverage and read the assumptions the management is making in the Annual Financial Reports. Check dividend history. See if you see any disruptive innovation or regulation likely to upset the business environment and then decide.

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