recession | wealthymatters

Going Bust For Growth – Dr Raghuram Rajan

July 18, 2015 Leave a comment

wealthymatters Here is the full text of the speech made by Dr Raghuram Rajan. As usual his speech has caused a flutter and consternation in some quarters. Assurances have been extended to people to calm them and reassure them that Acche Din will happen and not be a pipe dream. Believe whatever you choose to, but do read the speech below to get an idea of the world economy ,the problems in other countries and the constraints politicians round the world face. Then decide what you need to protect yourself from the shit floating round and then get ahead.

There are few areas of robust growth around the world, with the IMF repeatedly reducing its growth forecasts in recent quarters. This period of slow growth is particularly dangerous because both industrial countries and emerging markets need high growth to quell rising domestic political tensions. Policies that attempt to divert growth from others rather than create new growth are more likely under these circumstances. Even as we create conditions for sustainable growth, we need new rules of the game, enforced impartially by multilateral organizations, to ensure countries adhere to international responsibilities. Read more of this post

Filed under Tool Kit Tagged with Acche Din, depression, postaday, recession, world economic problems, world economy

Anticipating The Asian Financial Crisis -II

August 29, 2013 2 Comments

wealthymatters Swaminathan S A Aiyar is always well worth listening to,This piece by him is superlative and well worth reading,Do pass it around.There are too many people pretending that everything is fine or will be so in the near future.Unless we accept that there is a problem and a serious one,we are unlikely to go looking for solutions.

Make no mistake, a second Asian Financial Crisis is on its way. This storm will not blow over soon. It originated in the US, when the Fed proposed to taper and end quantitative easing. The frightening thing is that this will happen in stages over the next 12-18 months, and each turn of the liquidity screw can cause a fresh financial storm. Nothing Chidambaram or Raghuram Rajan say can avert the storm.

Learning from the 1997-99 experience, all Asian countries (including India) have built up large forex reserves, reduced leverage compared with 1997, and shifted to floating exchange rates. This makes them far more resilient, so they should not collapse as in 1997-99. But they will suffer severe damage regardless. Depreciation raises the price of all items that can be exported or imported. Estimates differ, but a 10% depreciation probably sucks out 1-1.2% of purchasing power through inflation. At . 68 to the dollar, currency depreciation is around 25% since May, implying a loss of purchasing power of 2.5-3% of GDP. That is hugely recessionary. It will be reflected in much higher prices of petroleum products, fertilisers, most commodities, and knock-on transport and material costs. Read more of this post

Filed under Paper Assets Tagged with 1997 Asian financial crisis, current account deficit, fair value of the rupee, Fiscal Deficit, fiscal stimulus, liquidity, monetary stimulus, postaday, Raghuram Rajan, recession, rupee depreciation, subsidies, US ending quantitative easing

The Lipstick Index

August 27, 2013 Leave a comment

wealthymatters Recessions mean that Ferraris stay in showrooms and designer dresses on shop racks, but lipstick bucks the trend: in hard times, women buy more of it, as it is an affordable indulgence. That, at least, is the idea behind the “lipstick index”, a term coined by Leonard Lauder, the chairman of Estée Lauder, a cosmetics firm, in the 2001 recession. Believers in the theory trace the phenomenon back to the Depression, when cosmetic sales increased by 25%, despite the convulsing economy. But reliable historical sales figures are hard to find.

The growing popularity of lipstick in India seems to bear out this hypothesis.

Filed under Tidbits, Tool Kit Tagged with affordable luxury, depression, hard times, Lipstick Index, postaday, recession

Beating The Slowdown Betul Style!

August 23, 2013 Leave a comment

wealthymatters 40 villages of Betul district in Madhya Pradesh are celebrating Diwali with ,great gusto,two-and-half months early.Apparently there are rumors floating around that the deity of Salkanpur appeared before cattle grazers and warned them that if anyone fails to celebrate Diwali during the rains, the family will lose its eldest son and/or face calamity.

So villagers are now making three trips to the Salkanpur temple to appease the goddess and avert a tragedy at home.And this has given a fresh spurt to the transport business as pilgrims rush to the Salkanpur temple. Normally jeep drivers charge Rs 1000-1200 for a trip to Salkanpur temple, but now a round trip costs Rs 3000-3500. This has lead to suspicion that these transporters are fuelling the rumours to make money.

To be doubly safe rather than sorry,villagers are continuing the festivities for 15 days.Every family is making purchases. There’s brisk buying and selling and money is exchanging hands. Normally at this time of the year, the monsoons bring trade to a grinding halt in this southern district of Madhya Pradesh. Read more of this post