India’s Shrinking Business Cycle

If you have a ladder of fixed income instruments  or are looking to take on debt,it helps to be able to have a feel for the interest rate cycle.I came across come interesting inputs to help in this effort in yesterday’s newspaper.

The chief takeaways of this article are:

1.By watching the long-term investments in infrastructure,maybe 10-15 years into the future,we can call the GDP growth rate.At present it is  likely to be 5-7 %.

2.The current RBI governor has commented that the potential growth output frontier has shrunk to about 7.5%.

3.During the growth phase of the business cycle,when the growth reaches,85% of the capacity,which is about 6.5% growth,RBI will likely apply the brakes.

4..The business cycle time period has reduced from a previous  7-8 years to 1.5-2 years.