The Middle Class Income Trap


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This is a problem developing countries might face when local wages rise fast and the country is no longer able to use the wage arbitrage between developed countries and its local labour force to produce goods and services for export and at the same time the country has not developed the technology and infrastructure to produce the advances goods and services that developed countries focus on producing .

When this happens,growth stalls and wages stagnate at about $1,000 to $12,000 gross national income per person measured in 2010 money.

The way out of the impasse is to focus on innovation and improve technical and managerial skills and re-focus businesses to concentrate on selling to the local markets made up of the rising middle class.

Stocks Are Not Always The Best Things Ever


A common myth in financial advisory circles is that in the long run,stocks outperform equity,so a person should have equity in their portfolio.

So what would your fate have been if you had no equity in your portfolio?Take a look at the graph below.It assumes you invested Rs 5000 in an FD or in the SENSEX in 1992.

Sensex vs FD returns

Now you know how  much you might have had 20 yrs from then either way.The figures will change,if you consider different start and finish years.But being certain that your capital is safe,that you are assured of some positive returns at least and being able to predict how much you might have  at the end have some value in themselves.and in these years at least you might not have done too badly if you kept off the stock markets.

But if you can pick stocks,there is nothing like it,Individual stocks could have multiplied to lacs of rupees.You will hear these stories from some of the front benchers in various AGMs. And interestingly,if you had invested in UTI MasterShare,India’s oldest diversified equity mutual fund,you might have seen about a two lacs. So a SIP in a middling diversified equity mutual fund is a good compromise.But mind an index fund wouldn’t have helped you so.As we don’t have too many mutual funds in India with such a long history,its hard to say if the category average of diversified equity funds might have come down if there were more data points.Also in case of equity  you will never be able to predict in advance what your holdings worth will be at some time in future,

Stocks are good in their own way if you wish to build wealth.But don’t be pressured into investing in them if you haven’t financially secured all your life goals.

Motivation For Entrepreneurs


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The Best Is Yet To Be


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Today there are a lot of people writing off the India story. The graph above is reason to believe differently.Yes,India has major problems,but the best is probably yet to be.The 7.3% growth in GDP that Mckinsey assumed may not materialize,but inflation still might produce or exceed the threefold increase in household incomes (As a proxy for national household incomes why not use the income of government servants?Link and since then a 7th pay Commission has been appointed).Its hard to say what exactly the increased incomes will purchase in real terms.But its certain there will be more money floating round.Enough for enterprising people to set up businesses and flourish,Entrepreneurs just need to survive and adapt.

Remembering Gandhiji


Remembering Gandhi ji’s thoughts on wealth:Link.Link.