The Story Of The Falling Rupee


wealthymattersEven after independence in 1947,the Indian Rupee was still pegged to the British Pound. The peg to the Pound was at INR 13.33 to a Pound which itself was pegged to USD 4.03. That means, officially speaking the USD to INR rate would be closer to Rs 4. In 1966,the Rupee was devalued and was now directly pegged to the US dollar at INR 7.50 per Dollar. Till 1966, the Indian currency, which was pegged to the British pound, was an officially or unofficially acceptable tender over a large part of Asia and Africa, from Beirut to Hong Kong.After the devaluation, the Rupee suddenly turned a global pariah, with few takers anywhere.Exports did not surge as expected and Indian financial prestige suffered even further.

By 1985, India had started having balance of payments problems. The rupee had by then been depreciated to about 17/$ in the intervening 2 decades,By the end of 1990, the country  was facing a serious economic crisis. The government was close to default, its central bank had refused new credit and foreign exchange reserves had reduced to such a point that India could barely finance three weeks’ worth of imports. India had to airlift its gold reserves to pledge it with International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan.In 1991,overnight the Rupee was devalued by another 50% from about 17/$ to about 25/$. In 1993,the government allowed the Rupee to be traded by traders without a forced peg and it started to slide as the government was no longer controlling the prices, fully and started to reflect the reality. From about 27/$ it slid to Rs.35/$ by 1997. Read more of this post

20% Fall History


wealthymattersIn 2008, when Lehman Brothers imploded on September 15, the Rupee, which had by then slipped a bit from its sub-39 all-time high to around 41, fell sharply and by the time the music really stopped, about 3 or 4 months in, to over 50 to the dollar, a decline of 20%.

In August 2011, when the US debt downgrade followed by the exploding of the European sovereign debt crisis (courtesy Greece) hit emerging markets like a bomb,the Rupee, which had been hovering between 44 and 46 for several months – during which, incidentally, both exports and imports were growing like gangbusters – collapsed in a near-straight line, triggering RBI action on December 15, tightening rules and squeezing liquidity. When the dust had cleared – or so it seemed – the rupee had lost over 20% and there was blood all over corporate balance sheets (and, of course, profit and loss statements). The banking system is still recovering from this.

This time round,the fall so far is just half of that in the previous two cases.