Stock markets have been touching new highs over past six months on improved sentiment, but macro concerns have kept bond yields high.Historically, cheap money, or low interest rates, has been a pre-condition for a bull run in equities. Given that interest rates in India are at multi-year highs, the question is who is right -the bond investor or the equity investor?
The story of the last six months in these two markets has been different. The benchmark Sensex has rallied over 20%, but the bond yields have continued to remain high above 8.6% in the period, suggesting the equity rally is purely driven by sentiment, and not by economic fundamentals. At the beginning of the 2004-2007 bull run, the 10-year government bond yields were at 5.28%, which increased to 7.8% towards end 2007 (the Sensex rose from 4800 to 20000 during the period). The bond yield fell to 5.26% in December 2008 as the Reserve Bank of India joined global central banks in lowering interest rates to prevent a worldwide collapse of economies after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. That formed the base for another rally from 2009 to 2011; the Sensex rose from 8600 to 20500 in the period.The benchmark bond yields are now at 8.69%, close to a five-year high. Read more of this post