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RJ Speak


wealthymattersThe following is an excerpt from a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala interview in the ET on the 27th of this month. Prescience?Wisdom?Wishful thinking?Motivated sound bytes?……….Time will tell.I thought it best to record the words for easy future reference.Here’s waiting for the structural and secular bull market that RJ speaks about!

During the challenging years of 2008-13, Indian corporates have restructured and become more competitive. Corporate governance has become better; and yet Indian investors have become more risk-averse and grossly underexposed to equity . We have come to believe that high interest rates, poor earnings growth and net outflows for domestic equity investors are the new normal. These factors are about to change, and for a very long time. This change is in inevitable and irreversible.

We are at the cusp of an era of strong policy frame work, business and investor friendly environment, elimination of supply-side constraints, initiation of a new capex cycle, falling interest rates, resumption of job creation, rising savings and a wall of foreign inflows combined with domestic outflows reversing into domestic inflows with a vengeance. While this is more obvious now, most of us are unable to comprehend the scale and the longevity of this change. We are at a stage where we are blinded by sudden light after being in a dark tunnel for years. We are unable to conceive the impact of a transition from the vicious cycle described above to a virtuous cycle the scale of which we have never experienced before. Read more of this post

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Inflation Indexed National Savings Securities Cumulative (IINSS-C)


All of us have probably woken up to similar ads in our daily newspapers:

Ever since  I woke up this morning I have been asked for my gyan on the matter at least a dozen times,so here it is:

You can find all the details of the scheme here:Link and before you ask:There are no tax incentives to invest in these bonds.

As for my take on whether these are a good investment?My answer is that the answer is in these words in the notification:

final combined CPI will be used as reference CPI with a lag of three months (i.e. final combined CPI for September 2013 would be reference CPI for all days of December 2013). In case of change in the base year, the base splicing method will be used.

So if the government/RBI chooses to be honest,it might be a good deal.But if the combining(averaging?) and change in base year is used as a means to reduce interest rates,i.e. financial repression,this product might be no better and probably worse than many PO small savings schemes with pre-declared interest rates for the tenure.

So,wait and watch before consigning larger sums of money in this product.

 

Diwali Dhamaka


wealthymatters

Yesterday the Union Cabinet approved a 10% increase over the existing rate of 80%, in dearness allowance and dearness relief, which will benefit about 50 lakh central government employees and 30 lakh pensioners .

The increase will be applicable from July 1, which means the central government employees and pensioners will get a good lump sum during the festival season-a real Diwali Dhamaka.

There will be additional . 900 crores every month in the hands of central government employees and pensioners.Maybe this should help pump-prime the economy!

The increase is in accordance with accepted formula based on the recommendations of the Sixth Central Pay Commission.Under the current rules, the government uses CPI-IW data for past 12 months to arrive at the biannual dearness increase, which is computed as a percentage of basic salary. It was increased to 80% from 72% in April 2013, effective January 1 this year. After Friday’s increase, the amount rises to 90% of basic pay. This is the first double digit dearness allowance increase in about three years. The retail inflation for industrial workers between July 2012 and June 2013 was used to compute the increase in DA.

Just see how much salaries have had to increase just to keep up with inflation.

Fallout Of The Collapse Of Lehman Brothers


Results of the collapse of Lehman Brothers

Buy The Product Not The Shares


wealthymattersInvest in their apartments, and you will get rich. But invest in their shares and you will be poorer. Unlike in other sectors, values of shares of listed real estate companies do not reflect the growing value of their products. Sample this: Investments made in shares of real estate companies like Delhi-based Unitech and DLF, Mumbai-based Indiabulls Real Estate or Bangalore-based Purvankara in 2008 would have crashed to half or to a fifth of their value by now whereas in the same period, returns from investments made in homes built by the same companies would have risen anywhere between 50% and 150% or more. If one had bought an apartment in any Gurgaon-based apartment building of DLF — India’s biggest builder — in 2008, the investment would have, by now, appreciated 60-175%. Had the same money been used to purchase DLF’s shares the same year, that investment would have eroded to just 20%. Investors of Unitech, Indiabulls and other real estate firms would have a similar story to tell. Read more of this post

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